In exactly two weeks the most important scheduled political event of the year will take place. The results of the 2012 US presidential election will have repercussions across the globe. How the world reacts to future international incidents, how the economy will look in four year’s time, how successful we are in dealing with the effects of climate change are just some of the things that the 6th November 2012 will have a major effect on.
I will be covering the results throughout the night, from the first state to the fiftieth. This is the first instalment of my US Elections series and will give you a comprehensive understanding of how the election will work and what to expect on the night. It is designed to be a companion to anyone who is looking forward to watching the results or wants to know what is going on in a bit more depth.
1: The Electoral System
The electoral system used to elect the next President of the United States is complicated to say the least. Here are the basics:
- The process is outlined in Article Two of the US Constitution
- Presidential elections are held every four years, on the Tuesday between the dates of the 2nd and 8th of November.
- The system used is based on the first past the post system but uses an unusual “electoral collage” system, this was a compromise brokered by the founding fathers to ease the tensions between those who wanted Congress to elect the President and those who wanted a national popular vote.
- In reality the US public does not directly elect their president.
- Each state is allocated a electors which is equal to the state’s number of representatives in the senate and the house of representatives, i.e. the bigger a state’s population the more electors they are allocated.
- The District of Colombia is awarded the same number of electors as the state with the lowest population. However US territories like Guam and Puerto Rico are not represented.
- On the day of the election a national public vote is held, with each state essentially holding their own election. This results in slightly different electoral laws and procedures between the states. As long as the law does not discriminate on grounds of race, sex or age (as long as they are over 18) it is up to the state, not the federal government, to regulate voter eligibility.
- Voters do not vote for the President but rather the “electors of a candidate”. In other words their vote endorses a group of electors pledged to vote for a specific Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidate.
- Most states use a “winner takes all” system, where in the candidate with the largest number number of votes from the public in that state wins all of that state’s electoral college votes regardless of the overall percentage that candidate has won. (For example: Barack Obama won all 15 of North Carolina’s electoral college votes in 2008, despite the fact he got 49.69% of the public vote and his rival John McCain got 49.36% – just the fact he got more meant he won the whole state.
- However, Maine and Nebraska are the two states where this is not the case. They have chosen to give two electoral college votes to the state-wide winner, and one vote to the winner of each congressional district. This means that in 2008 Nebraska (which has a total of five electoral college votes) gave John McCain 4 and Barack Obama 1, as it happens Maine (4 electoral college votes) gave all of their votes to Obama.
- In reality, the President is not officially elected until the electoral college electors from each state meet on the at the state’s capital on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December to cast their votes. Electors can technically vote for whomever they choose on this day, however this is rare and 24 states actually have laws punishing “faithless voters”, who vote for someone other than who they have pledged to. This means that we can be pretty sure of the result after each state has announced the results of the public vote.
- To win the election, a candidate must gain at least 270 electoral college votes, i.e. a majority of the overall number of possible electoral college votes.
- This system means that it is entirely possible to win the election without winning the public vote, however this has happened only 4 times in US history, the most recent of which was 2000 when George W. Bush was elected with less public votes than his rival Al Gore, but more electoral college votes.
2: The Parties
The United States is a two party system. That means that two parties dominate US political life and hold the vast majority of state and federal positions.
It is incredibly difficult for a candidate from a third party to win public office, particularly the presidency.
Political parties are much more loosely ideological than in the UK, while there is a broad ideological trend within the two main parties, both contain people identifying as liberal, conservative or centrists.
It may be easy to consider them more as electoral machines, with candidates from each party having loosely similar political beliefs.
The two parties are:
a) The Democratic Party
- FOUNDED: 1828 (modern), 1792 (historical)
- CHAIRPERSON: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Florida)
- REPRESENTATION: Senate Seats – 51/100, Seats in the House – 192/435, Governors – 20/50.
- CURRENT MOST INFLUENTIAL FIGURES: Barack Obama (President), Joe Biden (Vice-President), Nancy Palosi (Democrat Leader of the House).
- MOST RECENT PRESIDENTS: Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, Lyndon B. Johnson, John F. Kennedy, Harry S. Truman
- Currently holds the office of President with Barack Obama, the first African-American to hold the office, fighting for a second term.
- The Democrats are largely seen to be more left of centre than their main rivals the Republicans.
- Their official colour is blue, and their unofficial symbol is a donkey.
- The regions they tend to do best in during Presidential elections are the West coast (Washington, Oregon and California) and the North East of the country around New England and the Great Lakes.
- The voter base for both the Democrats and the Republicans can be considered to be broad however groups that have tended to vote for this party in recent elections include: Professionals, young voters, working class voters, women, ethnic minorities, and members of the LGBT community.
b) The Republican Party
- FOUNDED: 1854
- CHAIRPERSON: Reince Priebus (Wisconsin)
- Representation: Senate seats – 47/100, Seats in the House – 242/435, Governors – 29/50
- CURRENT MOST INFLUENTIAL FIGURES: Mitt Romney (Presidential candidate), Mitch McConnell (Minority Senate Leader), John Boehner (Speaker of the House)
- MOST RECENT PRESIDENTS: George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon
- George W. Bush was the last Republican president. Has had 18 presidents and was founded by anti-slavery activists.
- Dominated national politics from 1860-1932.
- The Republicans are seen as more right of centre than the Democrats. Since the election of Barack Obama, the Tea Party (an internal movement within the Republican Party), has influenced the ideological base of the party, moving it further to the right.
- Official colour is red, its symbol is an elephant. It is frequently called the GOP – Grand Old Party.
- Regions where it tends to do best are the Southern States (with the exception of Florida which is considered a swing state), Mid-Western and Central states (including Kansas, the Dakotas, Montana and Utah).
- Like the Democrats the voter base is broad, with many exceptions in each group. However recent trends suggest the Republicans appeal more strongly to groups including: Business people / high income voters, Caucasian, married voters, older voters, voters employed in the armed forces, voters who attend church regularly, Catholics and Evangelicals (i.e. more conservative Christian groups).
3) The Candidates
Name: Barack OBAMA
Current Political Office: 44th President of the United States of America
Political Party: Democratic
Running Mate: Vice-President Joe Biden
Age: 51
Born: Honolulu, Hawaii
State: Illinois
President Obama is the incumbent President of the United States and is seeking a second and final term in the White House after winning a landslide victory in 2008.
He is the first non-white US President and if elected on the 6th November will be only the second Democrat President to win a second term since Harry S. Truman 1948.
After gaining office in 2008 he was controversially given the Nobel Peace Prize.
During his time in office he has successfully found and killed Osama Bin Laden, the leader of global terrorist group Al-Qaeda, ended US military involvement in Iraq, ended the controversial policy of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, made the first step towards state-provided health care and became the first president to publicly support same-sex marriage.
After a poor showing in his first televised debate with Republican rival Mitt Romney, his lost his significant lead in the polls. He is still currently in the lead; however it is a lot closer than it was.
Obama needs approximately 74 electoral college votes from swing states to secure a win.
Name: Mitt Romney
Current Political Office: Former Governor of Massachusetts
Political Party: Republican
Running Mate: Paul Ryan (Member of the House of Representatives for Wisconsin 1st District)
Age: 65
Born: Detroit, Michigan
State: Massachusetts
Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination for President after winning enough primaries and caucuses and triumphing over a crowded field and a close race.
If elected he will be the first Mormon president of the United States. He is much more socially and economically conservative than Obama, saying that he would not support gay marriage, supporting Israel’s right to attack Iran and promising to severely cut public spending.
His campaign has been dotted with scandals and gaffes, the worst of which saw him state that 47% of the US electorate would vote for Barack Obama because he supported a welfare system which they relied upon and that it was not his job to look out for those people.
He has trailed Obama in the poll almost constantly throughout the year, however a strong performance in the first Presidential debate gave him a significant boost in the polls and despite the Obama campaign coming back strongly in the last three, he has managed to stay relatively neck and neck with his rival.
Romney needs approximately 79 electoral college votes to win.
Other Candidates:
Only two other candidates can mathematically win enough electoral college votes to be elected President, however it is extremely unlikely (verging on impossible) that these will make any real progress.
These two candidates are Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party.
4) The States
The above map shows which states voted for which candidate last time (Please note: Nebraska split their vote between the Democrat and the Republican candidates with the latter gaining 4 of their 5 electoral college votes).
List of States:
| Abb. | Name | Result in 2008 | No. of Electoral College Votes (2012) | Predicted 2012 Result |
| AK | Alaska | Republican | 3 | Republican |
| AL | Alabama | Republican | 9 | Republican |
| AR | Arkansas | Republican | 6 | Republican |
| AZ | Arizona | Republican | 11 | Republican |
| CA | California | Democrat | 55 | Democrat |
| CO | Colorado | Democrat | 9 | SWING STATE |
| CT | Connecticut | Democrat | 7 | Democrat |
| DC | District of Colombia | Democrat | 3 | Democrat |
| DE | Delaware | Democrat | 3 | Democrat |
| FL | Florida | Democrat | 29 | SWING STATE |
| GA | Georgia | Republican | 16 | Republican |
| HI | Hawaii | Democrat | 4 | Democrat |
| IA | Iowa | Democrat | 6 | SWING STATE |
| ID | Idaho | Republican | 4 | Republican |
| IL | Illinois | Democrat | 20 | Democrat |
| IN | Indiana | Democrat | 11 | Republican |
| KS | Kansas | Republican | 6 | Republican |
| KY | Kentucky | Republican | 8 | Republican |
| LA | Louisiana | Republican | 8 | Republican |
| MA | Massachusetts | Democrat | 11 | Democrat |
| MD | Maryland | Democrat | 10 | Democrat |
| ME | Maine | Democrat | 4 | Democrat |
| MI | Michigan | Democrat | 16 | SWING STATE |
| MN | Minnesota | Democrat | 10 | Democrat |
| MO | Missouri | Republican | 10 | Republican |
| MS | Mississippi | Republican | 6 | Republican |
| MT | Montana | Republican | 3 | Republican |
| NC | North Carolina | Democrat | 15 | SWING STATE |
| ND | North Dakota | Republican | 3 | Republican |
| NE | Nebraska | Republican | 5 | Republican |
| NH | New Hampshire | Democrat | 4 | SWING STATE |
| NJ | New Jersey | Democrat | 14 | Democrat |
| NM | New Mexico | Democrat | 5 | SWING STATE |
| NV | Nevada | Democrat | 6 | SWING STATE |
| NY | New York | Democrat | 29 | Democrat |
| OH | Ohio | Democrat | 18 | SWING STATE |
| OK | Oklahoma | Republican | 7 | Republican |
| OR | Oregon | Democrat | 7 | Democrat |
| PA | Pennsylvania | Democrat | 20 | SWING STATE |
| RI | Rhode Island | Democrat | 4 | Democrat |
| SC | South Carolina | Republican | 9 | Republican |
| SD | South Dakota | Republican | 3 | Republican |
| TN | Tennessee | Republican | 11 | Republican |
| TX | Texas | Republican | 38 | Republican |
| UT | Utah | Republican | 6 | Republican |
| VA | Virginia | Democrat | 13 | SWING STATE |
| VT | Vermont | Democrat | 3 | Democrat |
| WA | Washington | Democrat | 12 | Democrat |
| WI | Wisconsin | Democrat | 10 | SWING STATE |
| WV | West Virginia | Republican | 5 | Republican |
| WY | Wyoming | Republican | 3 | Republican |
The table above acts as a key to the map and shows you how many electoral college votes each state (and the District of Colombia) has in the 2012 election (these have changed since the last election due to the results of the latest census).
Polling results have been taken throughout the election period (and for that matter consistently since the last election) and most states can be reasonably well predicted even at this relatively early stage.
Twelve states can be called “swing states” this time around. This means that results of polls have been inconclusive – usually that the results are too close to call between the two main candidates.
Those swing states with the most electoral college votes are considered key states, these include Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Winning these is essential if a candidate is to win the election as they essentially have the deciding votes.
These states tend to be the states that see the most campaign events as the two main candidates put more effort into getting people in these states to vote for them.
Florida is the most valuable swing state with 29 available votes. It has the joint-third largest number of votes of any state (along with New York, likely to be Democrat and after California, 55 and Texas 38, the former likely to be Democrat, the latter likely to be Republican).
The US Presidential Election will be on Tuesday 6th November 2012, and owenjackwilliams.wordpress.com will be there as the results come in with comment, discussion and updated results. BE THERE.
Owen Jack Williams 
[…] I will be coving all of the results, with hopefully a good portion of comment to accompany it, from around 10.30PM British Time. If you need any extra information about how US elections work please take a look at my Companion Guide by clicking HERE. […]